Domestic equity benchmarks roared back to life on 18 August 2025, with the BSE Sensex surging 676.09 points (0.84 %) to 81,273.75 and the Nifty 50 climbing 245.65 points (1 %) to 24,876.95thehansindia.comeconomictimes.indiatimes.com. The rally followed Prime Minister Modi’s Independence Day hint that GST 2.0 could rationalise tax slabs and cut levies on automobiles and packaged goods, while maintaining a 40 % sin‑tax on tobacco productsplindia.com. S&P Global’s upgrade of India’s sovereign credit outlook further brightened sentiment, helping investors shrug off mixed global cues.
Context
Uncertainty around global markets kept traders on edge. European indices were mostly lower (FTSE 100 −0.09 %, DAX −0.34 %, CAC 40 −0.72 %, Stoxx 50 −0.58 %), while U.S. benchmarks closed modestly higher (Dow Jones +0.08 %, Nasdaq +0.39 %, S&P 500 +0.19 %)5paisa.com. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.77 %, TOPIX gained 0.43 %, Shanghai Composite climbed 0.85 %, but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.37 %armenpress.am. Despite the mixed cues, the domestic market opened with a sharp gap‑up, buoyed by expectations that GST reform would simplify the tax structure and spur consumption.
S&P’s sovereign rating upgrade — and subsequent upgrades of several banks and NBFCs — also lifted financial shares. Investors interpreted these developments as signalling robust macro fundamentals and potential for increased credit growthmoneycontrol.com. Meanwhile, a rally in crude oil prices and lingering concerns over global trade talks kept some defensive sectors under pressure.
Data
Benchmark indices (18 Aug 2025)
| Index | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | % Change | Key driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensex | 81,315.79 | 81,765.77 | 81,202.42 | 81,273.75 | +676.09 | +0.84 % | Auto & financial stocks surgeeconomictimes.indiatimes.com |
| Nifty 50 | 24,938.20 | 25,022.00 | 24,852.85 | 24,876.95 | +245.65 | +1.00 % | Rationalisation of GST slabs fuels buyingeconomictimes.indiatimes.com |
| Nifty Bank | – | – | – | 55,734.90 | +0.71 % | +0.71 % | Financials gain on S&P upgradethehansindia.com |
| Gift Nifty (futures) | – | – | – | 24,959.00 | −0.02 % | – | Flat signals ahead of next session5paisa.com |
Sectoral heatmap
| Sector index | % change | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty Auto | +4.18 % | Led by hopes of GST rate cut on small/hybrid carsthehansindia.com and strong sales outlook. |
| Nifty Consumer Durables | +3.0 % (approx.) | Expectation of lower GST on appliances boosts demandreuters.com. |
| Nifty Realty | +2 % | Benefited from rate cut speculation and better affordability. |
| Nifty Metal/Telecom/Private Bank | +1–2 % | Rally on global cues and upgrade of credit outlookmoneycontrol.com. |
| Nifty Bank | +0.71 % | Upgraded ratings of banks and NBFCs support valuationsmoneycontrol.com. |
| Nifty IT | −0.5 % (approx.) | Profit‑booking; sector underperformed on mixed global tech cuesmoneycontrol.com. |
| Nifty Media/Power | Negative | Lack of catalysts and profit‑booking weighed on countersmoneycontrol.com. |
Top gainers & losers (Nifty 50)
| Top 5 gainers | Price move | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Maruti Suzuki | +8.92 % | Government’s proposal to cut GST on small and hybrid cars to 18 % from 28 % fuels optimismangelone.in. |
| Hero MotoCorp | +5.99 % | Anticipated demand surge for two‑wheelers from GST rationalisationm.rediff.com. |
| Nestle India | +5.23 % | Expectation of lower GST on packaged foods and beverages spurs buyingreuters.com. |
| Bajaj Finance | +5.06 % | S&P’s upgrade of large NBFCs improves outlook; potential demand boost from consumer financingmoneycontrol.com. |
| Bajaj Auto | +4.61 % | Benefit from possible tax cuts and festive‑season demandm.rediff.com. |
| Top 5 losers | Price move | Reason |
| ITC | −1.49 % | GST 2.0 retains a 40 % levy on tobacco; cigarettes already face a 48–55 % tax incidence, leaving little benefit from reformplindia.com. |
| Eternal | −1.35 % | Profit booking after prior rally; absence of direct GST benefits. |
| Larsen & Toubro (L&T) | −1.01 % | Consolidation in capital‑goods stocks after recent gains. |
| NTPC | −0.90 % | Weakness in power sector amid muted demand; profit taking. |
| Infosys | −0.80 % | IT sector underperforms due to high valuations and mixed global tech cuesmoneycontrol.com. |
FII/DII flows
| Date | FII net purchase (₹ crore) | DII net purchase (₹ crore) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2025 | +550.80 | +4,103.80 | DIIs provided strong support, absorbing foreign selling5paisa.com. |
| 14 Aug 2025 | −1,926.80 | +3,895.70 | Previous session witnessed heavy FII outflows5paisa.com. |
Expert view – technical analysis & trade ideas
Analysts noted that the market gapped higher but faced resistance near the 25,000 mark. Rupak De of LKP Securities said the Nifty needs to sustain above 24,800 for momentum to continue; a decisive break above 25,000 could open the door to 25,250 while support lies at 24,500ndtvprofit.com. He advises buying on intraday dips and booking profits on rallies, cautioning that a slide below 24,750 may trigger a pullbackndtvprofit.com. Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities echoes this view, recommending a stop‑loss near 24,750/80,800 for long positions and suggesting that traders sell into rallies near 25,100/82,000ndtvprofit.com.
Intraday pivot levels from 5paisa place Nifty support at 24,715 and 24,615 with resistance at 25,038 and 25,138; for the Sensex, supports lie at 80,796 and 80,500, while resistance levels are 81,752 and 82,0485paisa.com. These levels may guide scalpers and swing traders.
The Moneycontrol live blog observed that after the gap‑up open, the index consolidated and formed a small red candle with a long upper shadow, suggesting potential exhaustionmoneycontrol.com. HDFC Securities’ Nagaraj Shetti said the unfilled upside gap at 24,550–24,750 may act as a breakaway gap, implying a bottom has been formed and projecting an upside target near 25,250moneycontrol.com. Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking highlighted that sustaining above the 20‑day moving average of 24,750 is critical for a larger rallymoneycontrol.com.
Forward view – what to watch next
Traders will focus on several near‑term catalysts:
- GST policy updates – investors expect more clarity on the proposed two‑slab GST structure during the GST Council’s meeting scheduled in early September.
- RBI & macro data – markets will track the release of July WPI inflation, the minutes of the RBI’s August Monetary Policy Committee meeting and any commentary on banking liquidity or credit growth.
- Global events – U.S. retail sales and housing data, China’s industrial production figures and the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting could influence risk sentiment.
- Corporate earnings – investors will watch results from Hindalco Industries, Adani Ports, Bharti Airtel and other large‑caps reporting during the week.
- FII flows & crude oil prices – sustained domestic buying is needed to offset any renewed foreign selling, while a spike in crude oil could pressure margins for manufacturing and FMCG companies.
Bottom line
A combination of domestic policy optimism and a sovereign rating upgrade triggered a broad‑based rally in Indian equities, driving the Nifty within striking distance of 25,000. Auto, consumption and financial names led the charge, while IT and tobacco stocks lagged. Though the near‑term trend remains upward, analysts caution that the market is approaching overbought territory; traders should stay nimble, use support/resistance zones for entries and exits and keep an eye on macro events and earnings data. A sustained break above 25,000 could pave the way for 25,250–25,500, whereas a slip below 24,750 may invite profit‑booking.
