Bajaj Broking Research names Adani Ports & SEZ and Jayaswal Neco Industries as the day’s top stock picks, citing technical strength and upside potential amid India’s GST-driven demand boost.
Introduction: Bajaj Broking Research has flagged Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (NSE: ADANIPORTS) and Jayaswal Neco Industries (NSE: JAYNECOIND) as its top stock recommendations for September 5, 2025timesofindia.indiatimes.com. The brokerage’s daily note comes as Indian equity markets hover near record highs, buoyed by recent GST tax reforms aimed at spurring consumption. Investors are watching these picks closely, given India’s robust economic backdrop – GDP grew 6.5% in the last fiscal yeardeloitte.com – and a stock market that is consolidating after a strong rally. Why it matters: Highlighting a blue-chip infrastructure giant and a surging small-cap steelmaker suggests confidence in India’s domestic growth story even as the market digests policy changes and global uncertainties.
India’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain resilient, providing a supportive backdrop for equities. The economy expanded 6.5% in FY2024-25deloitte.com, propelled by strong private consumption and investment pickup in the latter half of the yeardeloitte.com. Forecasters expect growth to stay around the mid-6% range in the current fiscaldeloitte.com, keeping India among the world’s fastest-growing major economies. Crucially, inflation has eased to multi-year lows – consumer price inflation fell to just ~2% by mid-2025tradingeconomics.com, well below the RBI’s 4% target. Cooling food and fuel prices (Brent crude is hovering near $67timesofindia.indiatimes.com) have given the Reserve Bank of India room to maintain a pause on interest rates with a dovish bias. Lower bond yields reflect this benign outlook: the benchmark 10-year government yield is around 6.5%countryeconomy.com, near its lowest in months, which is aiding equity valuations by keeping borrowing costs in check.
On the policy front, the government’s bold GST rate overhaul has been a key market driver. In a bid to boost consumer demand, authorities eliminated the 12% and 28% GST slabs, moving most items into 5% or 18%, and introduced a new 40% slab mainly for luxury and sin goodstimesofindia.indiatimes.comtimesofindia.indiatimes.com. These reforms, effective September 22, are expected to stimulate spending in sectors like autos and consumer goods, and the stock market reacted accordingly. This week, the Nifty50 index surged to an all-time high near 24,980 after the GST announcement, before succumbing to mild profit-booking at the 25,000 milestonetimesofindia.indiatimes.com. Major indices are now consolidating – the Nifty has been range-bound between 24,400 and 25,000 in recent sessionstimesofindia.indiatimes.com. Analysts note that a decisive break above 25,000 could propel the index toward the next resistance at 25,250timesofindia.indiatimes.com, whereas strong support around 24,400 has held firm amidst volatilitytimesofindia.indiatimes.com. The BSE Sensex similarly hovers above 80,700 after crossing the historic 81,000 mark, as investors digest the swift gains fueled by the tax cuts.
Market internals reflect a balanced picture. The latest trading session ended almost flat with the Nifty at 24,741 (+0.03%) and Sensex at 80,710timesofindia.indiatimes.com. Sectorally, auto and oil/gas stocks have outperformed, riding on hopes of a consumption revival and lower input taxestimesofindia.indiatimes.comtimesofindia.indiatimes.com. Auto indices jumped over 1.3% in one day as GST on vehicles was slashed, spurring optimism for car salestimesofindia.indiatimes.com. In contrast, IT and FMCG stocks lagged, with investors rotating out of defensives amid concerns of rich valuationstimesofindia.indiatimes.com. The broader market saw mixed trends – the BSE smallcap index inched up +0.09%, while midcaps dipped -0.10%, indicating some profit-booking in previously surging mid/small-cap namestimesofindia.indiatimes.com.
Importantly, foreign investor flows remain a wildcard. Global uncertainties (including seesawing U.S. trade policies and Fed rate outlook) have led to FII outflows in recent days, though in modest amounts. Foreign portfolio investors net sold about ₹106 crore of Indian equities on Thursdaytimesofindia.indiatimes.com. However, this was vastly outweighed by resilient domestic institutional buying – DIIs (mutual funds, insurers, banks) plowed in over ₹2,233 crore that daytimesofindia.indiatimes.com, demonstrating strong local appetite even as foreigners turned cautious. The Indian rupee, meanwhile, trades near record lows around ₹88 per US dollar, reflecting the global strength of the greenback and the FII withdrawalswise.com. Currency weakness bears watching, but so far a large FX reserve war-chest and minimal imported inflation (thanks to low oil prices) have kept alarm bells at bay.
Historical context: Over the past six months, Indian equities have charted an impressive run, with the Nifty50 climbing roughly 12% amid robust earnings and liquidity. This rally has taken valuations above long-term averages, prompting some consolidation in recent weeksbusiness-standard.com. In May–July, markets navigated challenges from rich valuations and tepid rural demand, yet remained buoyant on India’s long-term growth narrative. The recent GST stimulus and prospects of peaking global interest rates have added fresh fuel. Still, analysts caution that further upsides might hinge on earnings growth catching up and the trajectory of global markets. As global peers face a potential growth slowdown, India’s relatively insulated domestic demand is a pillar of support. All eyes are now on the upcoming RBI policy review and the festive-season demand data to gauge if the momentum can sustain into year-end.
Expert Opinions
Market experts are offering a mix of optimism and caution in the current environment. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, noted that despite an uneventful index finish, the undertone is positive. “Indian equities ended flat today, but sentiment stayed mildly positive as key indices rebounded from intra-day lows on buying at support levels. The auto sector continued to extend gains on expectations of a demand revival,” Nair observed, adding that global cues were supportive ahead of a crucial U.S. jobs report that could firm up Fed rate cut expectationstimesofindia.indiatimes.com. This suggests that domestic investors remain confident, buttressed by hopes of easier monetary conditions and policy reforms translating into corporate earnings.
Another market watcher, Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research at Religare Broking, highlighted the intra-sector rotations at play. “Markets traded in a narrow range and ended nearly flat on Friday… weakness in IT majors weighed in the first half, but resilience in select heavyweights supported a recovery as the session progressed,” said Mishra, pointing out that auto stocks outperformed, rising over 1% on optimism following reduced GST rates for vehiclestimesofindia.indiatimes.com. His comments underscore that while headline indices pause near record territory, stock-specific action (especially in rate-sensitive and consumer sectors) is picking up thanks to policy tailwinds like the tax cuts.
Looking at the broader picture, some strategists urge vigilance on valuations. Sanjeev Prasad of Kotak Institutional Equities recently warned that the Indian market may be “all dressed up and nowhere to go” in the near term, citing a disconnect between lofty stock prices and underlying economic realitiesbusiness-standard.com. In a co-authored report, Prasad noted that Indian equities are trading at rich valuations well above fair value, even as domestic growth shows signs of slowing in certain pocketsbusiness-standard.combusiness-standard.com. “Investors have yet to reconcile with the new reality,” he cautioned, referring to risks like muted income growth for lower- and middle-class households and a likely moderation in government capital spending that could cap a sharp demand reboundbusiness-standard.com. Kotak’s team believes the market’s recent sideways move could continue for a few months as these factors play out. Their advice skews cautious on small and mid-caps, many of which, they argue, trade at expensive valuations and may need to correct to more reasonable levelsbusiness-standard.com. By contrast, they find value in select large-cap sectors like banking/finance which are at fair valuationsbusiness-standard.com, implying investors might rotate toward quality large caps.
Countering the cautious tone, global brokerage Nomura has struck a bullish note on India. In June, Nomura raised its Nifty 50 target to 26,140 by March 2026, implying further upside of ~6% from current levelslivemint.comlivemint.com. The Japanese firm cited India’s macroeconomic stability and reform momentum as key drivers for this upgrade. “Indian equity markets have been resilient despite earnings estimate cuts and global uncertainties. Positive domestic macros – including a significant fall in bond yields – and consistent domestic inflows are supporting valuations,” Nomura wrotelivemint.com. Their strategists argue that with inflation, crude oil, and interest rates all on a downward trajectory, India is poised to preserve consumption momentum and contain external riskslivemint.com. Nomura expects corporate earnings growth to accelerate from about 8% in FY25 to 12% in FY26 and 15% in FY27, underpinning a constructive market outlooklivemint.com. They favor sectors tied to domestic demand – such as financials, consumer, autos, telecom and real estate – aligning with the view that India’s growth story is internally drivenlivemint.com. This optimistic perspective provides a counter-balance to domestic valuation worries, suggesting that if macro tailwinds persist (low inflation, reform benefits, robust liquidity), Indian equities could continue defying global headwinds.
Amid these broader viewpoints, Bajaj Broking’s own research team zeroed in on stock-specific opportunities, leading them to pick Adani Ports and Jayaswal Neco as top bets. According to the brokerage, Adani Ports & SEZ offers an attractive technical setup after a recent pullback. The stock has been recommended as a Buy in the ₹1,325–1,345 range with a target price of ₹1,438 (about 8% upside) and a stop-loss at ₹1,269timesofindia.indiatimes.comtimesofindia.indiatimes.com. Bajaj Broking’s analysts noted that APSEZ’s share price has been forming a base around its 200-day EMA (exponential moving average) – a key long-term support – and around a previous breakout zone, making current levels a “favorable risk-reward” entry pointtimesofindia.indiatimes.com. In shorter time frames, the stock broke out of a falling channel that contained the last six sessions’ decline, indicating a potential trend reversal highertimesofindia.indiatimes.com. Strong support is identified around ₹1,290–1,270 (confluence of last month’s low and the 200-day EMA), which gives traders a buffer to manage risktimesofindia.indiatimes.com. The brokerage expects Adani Ports to rally toward ₹1,438 in about one month, which corresponds to roughly 80% retracement of its July–August price correctiontimesofindia.indiatimes.com.
Why Adani Ports? Beyond the technical signals, Adani Ports’ fundamentals bolster its appeal. The country’s largest port operator has shown robust financial performance in recent quarters. It delivered a 31% YoY jump in revenue (₹9,126 crore) in Q1 FY2026, with consolidated net profit up about 7% to ₹3,314 croreeconomictimes.indiatimes.comeconomictimes.indiatimes.com. This growth was driven by extraordinary momentum in its logistics and maritime services – logistics revenue doubled and its marine segment nearly tripled year-on-yeareconomictimes.indiatimes.comeconomictimes.indiatimes.com. Cargo volumes handled by APSEZ climbed 11% YoY to 121 million tonnes, expanding its market share in India’s port sector to 27.8%economictimes.indiatimes.com. The company is also growing globally, having recently acquired strategic port assets abroad. Notably, in April it announced the acquisition of Australia’s Abbot Point terminal (NQXT) – a move that analysts hailed as a long-term positive despite some near-term earnings dilutioneconomictimes.indiatimes.comeconomictimes.indiatimes.com. Motilal Oswal retained a Buy rating on APSEZ with a ₹1,560 target after that deal, stating it enhances Adani Ports’ international cargo footprint and expecting significant volume and EBITDA growth from the new asseteconomictimes.indiatimes.com. Similarly, Kotak Securities highlighted that the 85-year lease asset provides assured throughput and aligns with Adani’s 1,000 MMT volume target by 2030economictimes.indiatimes.com. These endorsements reflect confidence in Adani Ports’ strategy and balance sheet – Jefferies recently noted the company’s improving leverage and healthy cash flows, indicating it can fund expansion while keeping net debt/EBITDA within 2.5xndtvprofit.com. For investors, APSEZ stands as a proxy for India’s infrastructure and trade growth: it operates a string of ports critical to exports/imports and will likely benefit from any revival in global trade as well as domestic manufacturing uptick (e.g., rising coal, container, and auto export volumes). Bajaj Broking’s pick suggests the stock’s momentum could resume on the back of both its technical pattern and strong fundamentals.
Meanwhile, Jayaswal Neco Industries represents the high-growth small-cap play that Bajaj Broking is backing. The iron and steel products company – a far smaller name than Adani Ports – has been in a steady uptrend, outperforming the broader market in recent monthstimesofindia.indiatimes.com. Bajaj Broking recommends buying Jayaswal Neco around ₹58.5–59.5 with a target of ₹67 (+13%) and a stop-loss at ₹57timesofindia.indiatimes.comtimesofindia.indiatimes.com. The suggested time frame is one month, indicating this is a tactical trade on expected continued momentum. The research note highlights that the stock is finding support at its 20-day EMA, a sign of short-term strength, and that it “has outperformed the overall market” – a trend likely to persisttimesofindia.indiatimes.com. Technically, the analysts see scope for the rally to extend to ₹67, which is the 123.6% external Fibonacci retracement of its last pullback from ₹65 to ₹57timesofindia.indiatimes.com. Importantly, daily stochastic oscillators remain in an uptrend, supporting a positive bias according to the notetimesofindia.indiatimes.com.
Jayaswal Neco’s rise is underpinned by a remarkable turnaround in its financials. In Q1 FY2026 (Apr–Jun 2025), the company swung to a ₹93 crore profit from a loss of ₹32 crore in the same quarter a year priorbusiness-standard.com. Revenue for the quarter grew ~15% YoY to ₹1,649 crorebusiness-standard.com. Even more impressively, EBITDA jumped 90% year-on-year to ₹315 crore, with operating margins expanding to 19% from 11% a year agobusiness-standard.com. This indicates significant improvements in efficiency and pricing power. Management has used the improved cash flows to reduce debt by about 6% in the quarter – outstanding secured debt fell to ₹2,557 crore from ₹3,227 crore at FY25 endbusiness-standard.com. The company’s financial restructuring and return to profitability have not gone unnoticed: its stock has more than doubled from 52-week lows, including a 54% surge in just two weeks in July–August 2025 amid heavy trading volumesbusiness-standard.combusiness-standard.com. A major development was Assets Care & Reconstruction Enterprise (ACRE) – an asset reconstruction firm – offloading its entire ~9% stake in the company in late Julybusiness-standard.com. The clearance of this institutional overhang was taken as a bullish signal by the market, possibly freeing up the stock for further gains. Ratings agency India Ratings (Ind-Ra) has noted that Jayaswal Neco’s outlook is improving thanks to 100% use of captive iron ore mines (lower input costs) and a richer product mix, which should sustain EBITDA margins in the 17–19% range going forwardbusiness-standard.com. The company, which makes alloy steel long products, has strong linkages to the automotive sector and other industrial segmentsbusiness-standard.com. As auto demand revives (helped by GST cuts on vehicles and a broader cyclical upturn), suppliers like Jayaswal Neco stand to benefit from higher orders. Analysts do caution that nearly 99.9% of the promoters’ shares remain pledgedscreener.in, a legacy of past debt, which introduces risk. However, the recent debt reduction and profit uptick are steps in the right direction to potentially deleverage and unpledge shares over time. For now, Bajaj Broking’s bullish stance indicates they see the uptrend continuing in the near term, albeit with the caveat of using stop-loss to manage volatility inherent in small-cap stocks.
Impact on Investors
For retail investors, these stock picks underscore where opportunities – and risks – lie in the current market. Bajaj Broking’s twin recommendations straddle a large-cap blue-chip and a small-cap turnaround, offering lessons in diversification by market cap and sector. Investors with a short-term trading orientation might find these ideas actionable, but must adhere to the specified entry zones and stop-loss levels given the inherently higher volatility in near-term trades.
Adani Ports & SEZ (NSE: ADANIPORTS) appeals to both traders and long-term investors as a bellwether infrastructure stock. As part of the Nifty 50, it features prominently in index funds and large-cap mutual fund portfolios, meaning many retail investors likely already have indirect exposure. Its inclusion as a top pick suggests confidence in India’s logistics and export-import theme. Retail investors looking for stable growth could view Adani Ports as a core holding to play India’s rising port traffic, industrial expansion, and even global trade recovery. The company’s strong fundamentals and backing by major brokerages (with targets in the ₹1500–1600 rangeeconomictimes.indiatimes.comeconomictimes.indiatimes.com) indicate potential upside beyond just the one-month trading call. That said, one should monitor group-related developments – as part of the Adani Group, the stock can be sensitive to broader sentiment or news about the conglomerate. The Hindenburg episode in 2023 showed that even fundamentally sound Adani companies can face sharp swings due to governance concerns. The group has since taken steps to improve transparency and reduce debt, and Adani Ports itself maintained growth throughout. Still, investors are advised to exercise appropriate position sizing: those with lower risk tolerance might prefer gaining exposure via a diversified infrastructure or logistics ETF/fund rather than a single stock bet.
Jayaswal Neco Industries (NSE: JAYNECOIND) represents a different risk-reward profile. As a ₹6,000 crore market-cap small-cap company, it can offer higher growth but with higher volatility. The stock’s 100%+ rally over the last few months exemplifies its momentum – great for those who entered early, but new investors should be cautious about chasing the rally without due diligence. Retail investors considering this stock should note a few points: First, the company’s fundamentals have improved markedly (return to profit, margin expansion, debt trimming), which is a positive sign for sustainability of the uptrend. It indicates a possible turnaround story that long-term investors often seek in small-caps. However, second, the promoter share pledge is extremely highscreener.in, which can be a red flag – it implies the promoters have borrowed heavily against their shares. If the stock price falls significantly, it could trigger issues like pledge invocation. Thus, investors must keep an eye on further debt reduction or pledge release announcements. Third, liquidity and corporate governance in small-caps can be lower, so stop-loss discipline is crucial if one is trading this stock. From a portfolio perspective, Jayaswal Neco might occupy a small allocation in the high-risk/high-reward portion of one’s equity exposure. Some small-cap mutual funds or PMS schemes might hold such turnaround industrial plays, but it’s not a widely owned stock institutionally. Therefore, retail investors taking direct exposure should have the ability to tolerate short-term swings and potentially hold through any minor corrections, as long as the fundamental thesis (steel demand growth, debt reduction, etc.) remains intact.
Sector-wise, these picks highlight segments that could outperform in the coming months. Ports and logistics (Adani Ports) are leveraged to any uptick in global trade, export-import volumes, and domestic industrial activity. Notably, the government’s push on manufacturing (PLI schemes, Make in India) and improving trade infrastructure bode well for port operators. Adani Ports, with its network of ports handling a quarter of India’s cargo, is a direct beneficiary of higher port throughput – something evidenced by its recent volume growtheconomictimes.indiatimes.com. Additionally, as India’s exports recover from a slump (the GST relief on certain goods and trade deals in pipeline could help), companies like Adani Ports should see sustained growth. Retail investors bullish on India’s trade should ensure they have exposure to this theme – either via Adani Ports or peers, or through infrastructure ETFs.
Steel & auto-component plays (Jayaswal Neco) stand to gain from a revival in auto sales and capital expenditure. The GST cut on entry-level vehicles reduces car prices, potentially boosting demand – a positive for steel suppliers into auto manufacturing. Jayaswal Neco’s products (alloy steel bars, wire rods, etc.) feed into automotive and engineering sectorsbusiness-standard.com, meaning a pick-up in auto production and infrastructure projects (bridges, rail, defense) should translate into higher order books. Investors can play this broader trend via larger steel stocks or metal index funds as well, but Jayaswal Neco offers a focused bet on a smaller company with improving internals. It’s noteworthy that the Nifty Metal index has been relatively subdued in 2025 compared to other sectors; any cyclical upturn in metal prices or demand could ignite renewed interest in steel equities, small and large. That said, commodity stocks are cyclical – retail investors should be mindful that the steel cycle can turn with global prices, and factor that into exit strategies or trailing stops.
In terms of portfolio strategy, the inclusion of one large-cap and one small-cap as top picks illustrates the benefit of a barbell approach. Large-caps like Adani Ports provide stability and steady growth, often paying modest dividends and enjoying institutional support. Small-caps like Jayaswal Neco can deliver outsized returns but also carry idiosyncratic risk. Retail investors should balance their exposure accordingly. For a conservative investor, the takeaway might be the validation of Adani Ports as a good buy on dips (given even trading-oriented research sees ~8% near-term upside). For an aggressive investor, the highlighted momentum in Jayaswal Neco could be tempting, but position sizing should be small, and one must keep a finger on the pulse of news (e.g., any announcements on its debt refinancing, new contracts, or promoter actions).
Finally, both picks underscore the importance of following expert guidance with due caution. Brokerage calls like these often assume a short-term time horizon. If the targets are met quickly, one strategy for retail investors could be to book partial profits. If one intends to hold longer, it would be wise to reassess the companies’ fundamentals after the expected move – for instance, if Adani Ports hits ₹1,438, does its outlook still warrant adding at higher levels or is the upside mostly realized? Continual review is key. In summary, Bajaj Broking’s top picks signal confidence in the economic recovery story – from ports buzzing with freight to factories rolling out steel – but prudent investors should use such tips as one input in a broader, well-diversified investment plan.
Bajaj Broking’s latest stock picks shine a spotlight on India’s post-GST market landscape – one where select leaders and turnaround stories could outperform even as the broader indices take a breather. Adani Ports & SEZ and Jayaswal Neco Industries have emerged as favored bets for their strong setups: the former is leveraging policy tailwinds and robust trade activity, while the latter rides a wave of improved earnings and sectoral momentum. These recommendations are underpinned by a macro context of resilient domestic demand, record market levels, and benign inflation, yet they also come with reminders of risk (small-cap volatility, global uncertainty).
Going forward, investors will be navigating a market at crossroads. The core event – a major GST tax cut – has provided a one-time fillip to sentiment and certain sectors. The drivers ahead include how effectively this translates into actual consumption uptick (the festive season demand in October-November will be telling), and whether corporate earnings in the upcoming Q2 results season confirm the optimism. Meanwhile, key risks lurk: a potential global slowdown or commodity price rebound could test India’s outperformance. Market valuations remain elevated, so any negative surprise (domestic or international) might trigger volatility or a correction, especially in overheated pockets.
Nevertheless, the outlook carries hopeful notes. The RBI’s next policy meeting is on the horizon (with expectations that rates will remain stable or even tilt lower if inflation stays subdued), providing continuity in monetary support. Globally, if the U.S. Federal Reserve pivots to rate cuts in 2026 as some anticipate, emerging markets like India could see renewed capital inflows. In the immediate term, the actual implementation of the GST revisions on Sept 22 will be watched closely – both by businesses adjusting pricing and by economists gauging the fiscal impact. So far, early estimates (e.g., an SBI report) suggest the revenue loss is manageabletimesofindia.indiatimes.com, which if true, means the reforms could pay off via higher growth without derailing public finances.
In summary, India’s stock market enters the final quarter of 2025 with a mix of optimism and prudence. Bajaj Broking’s top picks encapsulate this balance – backing fundamentally strong, policy-aligned companies while advising vigilance through tight stop-losses. Investors would do well to emulate this approach: stay constructively invested in the India story, but remain selective and vigilant. As the year winds down, factors like festive demand, state elections, and global central bank moves will shape the next leg of market direction. With the right picks and risk management, retail investors can navigate these currents and position themselves for the opportunities and challenges ahead.
